Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.82
No45%
ours 2.21
All matches
—
Como — Venezia, Serie A
Italy, Serie A
Como
2.8LWWWW
Venezia
0.9LLLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
74%18%
Como74%Draw18%Venezia8%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Como1.35—
XDraw5.53—
2Venezia12.74—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricComoVeneziaCombined
Goals scored0.000.330.33
Conceded0.001.001.00
Corners—7.5—
Cards—4.0—
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
ComoVenezia
Calcio Como 74%, Venezia FC 8%. The safest is “Calcio Como or draw” at 89%.
Calcio Como 74%Draw 18%Venezia FC 8%
1st half
48 · 36 · 16
2nd half
51 · 31 · 18
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Over 0.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Como
- awayFrosinone0:2
- homeParma2:1
- homeRB Leipzig4:1
- awayGenoa4:1
- awayNapoli2:1
Venezia
- homeLazio0:2
- homeFiorentina2:4
- awayFrosinone2:3
- awayAC Milan0:2
- homeLecce0:2
Head to head
- 03/08/25Serie A1:1
- 12/08/24Serie A2:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6
Frosinone53119:410
Frosinone53119:4107
Juventus53118:410
Juventus53118:4108Como53119:610
Como53119:6109
Napoli52127:67
Napoli52127:6710
Sassuolo52129:97
Sassuolo52129:9711
Atalanta52035:76
Atalanta52035:7612
Lecce52035:106
Lecce52035:10613
Udinese51138:114
Udinese51138:11414
Torino51135:84
Torino51135:8415
Parma51134:74
Parma51134:7416
Monza51138:124
Monza51138:12417
Fiorentina51136:124
Fiorentina51136:12418
Bologna50233:62
Bologna50233:6219
Genoa50143:101
Genoa50143:10120Venezia50054:130
Venezia50054:130Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.