All matches

AS Roma — Cagliari Calcio, Serie A

Italy, Serie A

AS Roma
3.3DWDWW
—
Cagliari Calcio
1.6WWWLW
Outcome probability
7318
AS Roma73%Draw18%Cagliari Calcio9%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1AS Roma73%1.37—
XDraw18%5.64—
2Cagliari Calcio9%10.58—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes41%

ours 2.43

No59%

ours 1.70

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAS RomaCagliari CalcioCombined
Goals scored0.330.671.00
Conceded0.330.170.50
Corners6.011.38.7
Cards3.00.33.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    AS RomaCagliari Calcio
    1Table position4
    4Matches in 14 days2
    49.00%Possession38.70%
    3.2Days of rest3.3
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    AS Roma look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 73%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

    The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

    Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

    Start freePlans

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Form and context

AS Roma

  • homeFC Internazionale Milano2:2
  • awayTorino FC2:0
  • awayFenerbahçe1:1
  • homeAtalanta Bergamasca Calcio2:1
  • awayUS Lecce4:0

Cagliari Calcio

  • awayUdinese Calcio1:0
  • awayAtalanta Bergamasca Calcio2:1
  • homeUS Lecce1:0
  • homeFC Internazionale Milano0:1
  • awayParma Calcio 19131:0

Head to head

  • 02/09/26Serie A2:0
  • 12/07/25Serie A0:1
  • 03/16/25Serie A1:0
  • 08/18/24Serie A0:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1AS Roma541014:313
2FC Internazionale Milano541015:813
3SS Lazio54108:313
4Cagliari Calcio54015:212
5AC Milan532010:411
6Frosinone Calcio53119:410

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

PlansSign in

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.