All matches

Calcio Como — US Sassuolo Calcio, Serie A

Italy, Serie A

Calcio Como
2.8LWWWW
—
US Sassuolo Calcio
1.8LWDWL
Outcome probability
642215
Calcio Como64%Draw22%US Sassuolo Calcio15%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Calcio Como64%1.57—
XDraw22%4.60—
2US Sassuolo Calcio15%6.88—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.80

No45%

ours 2.25

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCalcio ComoUS Sassuolo CalcioCombined
Goals scored0.331.331.66
Conceded0.501.171.67
Corners15.012.313.6
Cards1.51.83.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Calcio ComoUS Sassuolo Calcio
    2.8Days of rest7.8
    4Matches in 14 days2
    64.50%Possession47.80%
    8Table position10
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Calcio Como: a home win is rated at 64%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 10.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Calcio Como

  • awayFrosinone Calcio0:2
  • homeParma Calcio 19132:1
  • homeRasen Ballsport Leipzig4:1
  • awayGenoa CFC4:1
  • awaySSC Napoli2:1

US Sassuolo Calcio

  • awaySS Monza 19121:2
  • homeJuventus FC3:2
  • awayBologna FC 19092:2
  • homeTorino FC2:1
  • awayAtalanta Bergamasca Calcio1:2

Head to head

  • 04/17/26Serie A1:2
  • 11/28/25Serie A2:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6Frosinone Calcio53119:410
7Juventus FC53118:410
8Calcio Como53119:610
9SSC Napoli52127:67
10US Sassuolo Calcio52129:97
11Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio52035:76
12US Lecce52035:106

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.