SS Monza 1912 — Cagliari Calcio, Serie A

Italy, Serie AOctober 19 at 04:30 PM

SS Monza 1912

0.7WLDLL

—

Cagliari Calcio

1.6WWWLW

Outcome probability

192556

SS Monza 191219%Draw25%Cagliari Calcio56%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1SS Monza 191219%5.23—

XDraw25%3.99—

2Cagliari Calcio56%1.79—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.92

No48%

ours 2.08

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSS Monza 1912Cagliari CalcioCombined

Goals scored1.330.832.16

Conceded2.000.332.33

Corners8.610.69.6

Cards1.81.02.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
SS Monza 1912Cagliari Calcio
16Table position4
46.20%Possession40.80%
8.1Days of rest7.9
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, Cagliari Calcio still look stronger — an away win is rated at 56%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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