Both teams to score
Yes61%
ours 1.65
No39%
ours 2.54
All matches
Atletico Mineiro — Vasco da Gama, Serie A
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
51%25%24%
Atletico Mineiro51%Draw25%Vasco da Gama24%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Atletico Mineiro1.98—
XDraw3.94—
2Vasco da Gama4.15—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3612 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3602 matches
Cards
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72%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3593 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Atletico MineiroVasco da Gama
CA Mineiro 51%, CR Vasco da Gama 24%. The safest is “CA Mineiro or draw” at 76%.
CA Mineiro 51%Draw 25%CR Vasco da Gama 24%
1st half
35 · 41 · 24
2nd half
36 · 30 · 34
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total shots: Over 25.5
72%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAtletico MineiroVasco da GamaCombined
Goals scored1.602.003.60
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Atletico Mineiro- Unbeaten at home in 8 matches1:0, 2:1, 1:0, 1:1, 3:1
- Fewest yellow cards in the league — 1.7 per match20 teams in the league
- Won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings1:0, 5:0, 1:1, 0:2, 2:0
Vasco da Gama- Most shots in the league — 18.0 per match20 teams in the league
- 10 goals in the last 5 matches3:2, 0:1, 0:0, 2:1, 5:0
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Atletico Mineiro
- awayFlamengo2:3
- homeCoritiba1:0
- homeSantos2:1
- awayAthletico Paranaense2:2
- homeRed Bull Bragantino1:0
Vasco da Gama
- homeCorinthians3:2
- awaySao Paulo0:1
- homeRemo0:0
- awayBotafogo2:1
- homeCoritiba5:0
Head to head
- 05/31/26Serie A1:0
- 12/07/25Serie A5:0
- 08/10/25Serie A1:1
- 12/04/24Serie A0:2
- 07/21/24Serie A2:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Brazil, Serie A: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.