Both teams to score
Yes54%
ours 1.85
No46%
ours 2.17
All matches
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Atalanta — Parma, Serie A
Italy, Serie A
Atalanta
2.7LLLWW
Parma
1.4WLDLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
60%24%16%
Atalanta60%Draw24%Parma16%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Atalanta1.66—
XDraw4.22—
2Parma6.23—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAtalantaParmaCombined
Goals scored0.000.500.50
Conceded0.000.500.50
Corners—11.0—
Cards—1.5—
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
AtalantaParma
Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio 60%, Parma Calcio 1913 16%. The safest is “Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio or draw” at 82%.
Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio 60%Draw 24%Parma Calcio 1913 16%
1st half
44 · 38 · 18
2nd half
41 · 36 · 23
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Atalanta
- awayJuventus0:2
- homeCagliari1:2
- awayRoma1:2
- homeBologna1:0
- awayHapoel Tel Aviv1:0
Parma
- homeGenoa2:1
- awayComo1:2
- homeMonza1:1
- awayJuventus0:2
- homeCagliari0:1
Head to head
- 01/25/26Serie A4:0
- 08/30/25Serie A1:1
- 05/25/25Serie A2:3
- 11/23/24Serie A3:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9
Napoli52127:67
Napoli52127:6710
Sassuolo52129:97
Sassuolo52129:9711Atalanta52035:76
Atalanta52035:7612
Lecce52035:106
Lecce52035:10613
Udinese51138:114
Udinese51138:11414
Torino51135:84
Torino51135:8415Parma51134:74
Parma51134:7416
Monza51138:124
Monza51138:12417
Fiorentina51136:124
Fiorentina51136:124Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.