All matches

FC Internazionale Milano — Parma Calcio 1913, Serie A

Italy, Serie A

FC Internazionale Milano
3.9DWLWW
—
Parma Calcio 1913
1.4WLDLL
Outcome probability
85
FC Internazionale Milano85%Draw10%Parma Calcio 19135%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Internazionale Milano85%1.17—
XDraw10%9.91—
2Parma Calcio 19135%21.79—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes42%

ours 2.36

No58%

ours 1.74

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC Internazionale MilanoParma Calcio 1913Combined
Goals scored2.670.833.50
Conceded1.671.172.84
Corners11.28.39.8
Cards1.81.73.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FC Internazionale MilanoParma Calcio 1913
    2Table position15
    63.20%Possession44.30%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FC Internazionale Milano look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 85%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 12.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FC Internazionale Milano

  • awayAS Roma2:2
  • homeUdinese Calcio5:3
  • awayReal Madrid CF1:2
  • homeSSC Napoli3:2
  • awayCagliari Calcio1:0

Parma Calcio 1913

  • homeGenoa CFC2:1
  • awayCalcio Como1:2
  • homeSS Monza 19121:1
  • awayJuventus FC0:2
  • homeCagliari Calcio0:1

Head to head

  • 05/03/26Serie A2:0
  • 01/07/26Serie A2:0
  • 04/05/25Serie A2:2
  • 12/06/24Serie A3:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1AS Roma541014:313
2FC Internazionale Milano541015:813
3SS Lazio54108:313
4Cagliari Calcio54015:212
5AC Milan532010:411
6Frosinone Calcio53119:410
7Juventus FC53118:410
8Calcio Como53119:610
9SSC Napoli52127:67
10US Sassuolo Calcio52129:97
11Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio52035:76
12US Lecce52035:106
13Udinese Calcio51138:114
14Torino FC51135:84
15Parma Calcio 191351134:74
16SS Monza 191251138:124
17ACF Fiorentina51136:124

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.