All matches

AC Milan — Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio, Serie A

Italy, Serie A

AC Milan
2.8WLDDW
—
Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio
2.7LLLWW
Outcome probability
432928
AC Milan43%Draw29%Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio28%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1AC Milan43%2.32—
XDraw29%3.44—
2Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio28%3.60—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes48%

ours 2.06

No52%

ours 1.94

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAC MilanAtalanta Bergamasca CalcioCombined
Goals scored1.000.501.50
Conceded0.831.001.83
Corners7.88.07.9
Cards1.81.02.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    AC MilanAtalanta Bergamasca Calcio
    5Table position11
    61.80%Possession46.00%
    3Days of rest2.9
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    AC Milan look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 43%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 3.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

AC Milan

  • homeUS Lecce3:0
  • homeSL Benfica0:2
  • awaySS Lazio2:2
  • awayJuventus FC1:1
  • homeVenezia FC2:0

Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio

  • awayJuventus FC0:2
  • homeCagliari Calcio1:2
  • awayAS Roma1:2
  • homeBologna FC 19091:0
  • awayHapoel Tel Aviv FC1:0

Head to head

  • 05/10/26Serie A2:3
  • 10/28/25Serie A1:1
  • 04/20/25Serie A0:1
  • 12/06/24Serie A1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3SS Lazio54108:313
4Cagliari Calcio54015:212
5AC Milan532010:411
6Frosinone Calcio53119:410
7Juventus FC53118:410
8Calcio Como53119:610
9SSC Napoli52127:67
10US Sassuolo Calcio52129:97
11Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio52035:76
12US Lecce52035:106
13Udinese Calcio51138:114

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.