Both teams to score
Yes61%
ours 1.65
No39%
ours 2.54
All matches
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Atalanta — Frosinone, Serie A
Italy, Serie A
Atalanta
2.7LLLWW
Frosinone
2.0WDWWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
47%25%28%
Atalanta47%Draw25%Frosinone28%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Atalanta2.14—
XDraw3.94—
2Frosinone3.58—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAtalantaFrosinoneCombined
Goals scored0.171.501.67
Conceded0.670.501.17
Corners7.013.010.0
Cards1.02.53.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
AtalantaFrosinone
Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio 47%, Frosinone Calcio 28%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.
Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio 47%Draw 25%Frosinone Calcio 28%
1st half
35 · 35 · 29
2nd half
38 · 36 · 26
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Double chance: Home or draw
69%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Atalanta
- awayJuventus0:2
- homeCagliari1:2
- awayRoma1:2
- homeBologna1:0
- awayHapoel Tel Aviv1:0
Frosinone
- homeComo2:0
- awayGenoa1:1
- homeVenezia3:2
- awayFiorentina3:0
- homeJuventus0:1
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4
Cagliari54015:212
Cagliari54015:2125
AC Milan532010:411
AC Milan532010:4116Frosinone53119:410
Frosinone53119:4107
Juventus53118:410
Juventus53118:4108
Como53119:610
Como53119:6109
Napoli52127:67
Napoli52127:6710
Sassuolo52129:97
Sassuolo52129:9711Atalanta52035:76
Atalanta52035:7612
Lecce52035:106
Lecce52035:10613
Udinese51138:114
Udinese51138:114Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.