Both teams to score
Yes60%
ours 1.67
No40%
ours 2.50
All matches
—
Fiorentina — Atalanta, Serie A
Italy, Serie A
Fiorentina
2.2DWLLL
Atalanta
2.7LLLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
35%25%40%
Fiorentina35%Draw25%Atalanta40%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Fiorentina2.89—
XDraw3.95—
2Atalanta2.49—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricFiorentinaAtalantaCombined
Goals scored1.000.001.00
Conceded0.830.331.16
Corners7.79.08.3
Cards1.32.03.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
FiorentinaAtalanta
ACF Fiorentina 35%, Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio 40%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.
ACF Fiorentina 35%Draw 25%Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio 40%
1st half
36 · 36 · 28
2nd half
31 · 37 · 32
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 10.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Fiorentina
- homeNapoli1:1
- awayVenezia4:2
- homeTorino1:2
- homeFrosinone0:3
- awayRoma0:4
Atalanta
- awayJuventus0:2
- homeCagliari1:2
- awayRoma1:2
- homeBologna1:0
- awayHapoel Tel Aviv1:0
Head to head
- 05/22/26Serie A1:1
- 11/30/25Serie A0:2
- 03/30/25Serie A1:0
- 09/15/24Serie A2:3
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9
Napoli52127:67
Napoli52127:6710
Sassuolo52129:97
Sassuolo52129:9711Atalanta52035:76
Atalanta52035:7612
Lecce52035:106
Lecce52035:10613
Udinese51138:114
Udinese51138:11414
Torino51135:84
Torino51135:8415
Parma51134:74
Parma51134:7416
Monza51138:124
Monza51138:12417Fiorentina51136:124
Fiorentina51136:12418
Bologna50233:62
Bologna50233:6219
Genoa50143:101
Genoa50143:101Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.