All matches

Valur — KA, Úrvalsdeild

Iceland, Úrvalsdeild

Valur
2.2DWWDL
—
KA
1.6WLWDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
56%22%22%
Valur56%Draw22%KA22%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Valur56%1.79—
XDraw22%4.57—
2KA22%4.48—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes67%

ours 1.48

No33%

ours 3.07

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricValurKACombined
Goals scored1.501.673.17
Conceded1.171.833.00
Corners11.613.412.5
Cards2.22.44.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

ValurKA

Valur Reykjavík 56%, KA Akureyri 22%. The safest is “No draw” at 79%.

Valur Reykjavík 56%Draw 22%KA Akureyri 22%
1st half
45 · 32 · 23
2nd half
38 · 35 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Goal in both halves: Yes

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Valur

  • awayIB Vestmannaeyja1:1
  • homeThor Akureyri4:1
  • awayKeflavik IF2:1
  • homeIA Akranes2:2
  • awayVikingur Reykjavik0:2

KA

  • homeThor Akureyri3:0
  • awayFH Hafnarfjordur0:3
  • homeBreidablik2:1
  • awayFram Reykjavik2:2
  • homeKR Reykjavik3:5

Head to head

  • 08/17/26Úrvalsdeild4:4
  • 05/22/26Úrvalsdeild1:0
  • 06/27/25Úrvalsdeild5:2
  • 04/23/25Úrvalsdeild3:1
  • 08/06/24Úrvalsdeild0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Breidablik2496947:4633
5IA Akranes2496944:4733
6Valur24941144:4731
7Stjarnan24941146:5531
8Keflavik IF24851136:4429
9FH Hafnarfjordur2469935:4127
10KA24651338:5123
11Thor Akureyri24631523:5721
12IB Vestmannaeyja24471333:4819

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.