UMF Stjarnan — KA Akureyri, Úrvalsdeild

Iceland, ÚrvalsdeildOctober 10 at 02:00 PM

UMF Stjarnan

2.1LWDWW

—

KA Akureyri

1.6WLWDL

Outcome probability

562123

UMF Stjarnan56%Draw21%KA Akureyri23%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1UMF Stjarnan56%1.78—

XDraw21%4.75—

2KA Akureyri23%4.38—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes72%

ours 1.39

No28%

ours 3.58

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricUMF StjarnanKA AkureyriCombined

Goals scored2.172.334.50

Conceded2.002.504.50

Corners12.013.512.8

Cards1.72.03.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
UMF StjarnanKA Akureyri
7Table position10
53.00%Possession44.20%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour UMF Stjarnan: a home win is rated at 56%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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