Valencia CF — Villarreal CF, La Liga

Spain, La LigaOctober 24 at 04:30 PM

Valencia CF

1.7LWLLL

—

Villarreal CF

2.5WWLLL

Outcome probability

262648

Valencia CF26%Draw26%Villarreal CF48%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Valencia CF26%3.88—

XDraw26%3.82—

2Villarreal CF48%2.08—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.72

No42%

ours 2.39

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricValencia CFVillarreal CFCombined

Goals scored0.501.001.50

Conceded1.500.331.83

Corners8.510.09.3

Cards2.31.03.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Valencia CFVillarreal CF
19Table position9
2Matches in 14 days4
6.9Days of rest3.9
48.00%Possession62.50%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, Villarreal CF still look stronger — an away win is rated at 48%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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