All matches

Valencia CF — Athletic Club Bilbao, La Liga

Spain, La Liga

Valencia CF
1.7LWLLL
—
Athletic Club Bilbao
2.1DDWWL
Outcome probability
402932
Valencia CF40%Draw29%Athletic Club Bilbao32%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Valencia CF40%2.52—
XDraw29%3.49—
2Athletic Club Bilbao32%3.16—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes44%

ours 2.27

No56%

ours 1.79

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricValencia CFAthletic Club BilbaoCombined
Goals scored0.671.001.67
Conceded2.000.502.50
Corners8.810.69.7
Cards2.02.04.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Valencia CFAthletic Club Bilbao
    19Table position10
    6Days of rest7.3
    49.40%Possession49.80%
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Valencia CF: a home win is rated at 40%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Valencia CF

  • homeReal Sociedad de Fútbol2:3
  • awayDeportivo Alavés1:0
  • awaySevilla FC0:1
  • homeFC Barcelona0:5
  • awayReal Club Deportivo de La Coruña1:3

Athletic Club Bilbao

  • homeDeportivo Alavés0:0
  • homeElche CF1:1
  • homeClub Atlético de Madrid3:0
  • awayReal Club Celta de Vigo2:0
  • awayFC Barcelona0:2

Head to head

  • 05/10/26La Liga1:0
  • 09/20/25La Liga2:0
  • 05/18/25La Liga0:1
  • 08/28/24La Liga0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8Real Sociedad de Fútbol73139:1310
9Villarreal CF722313:128
10Athletic Club Bilbao62227:68
11Getafe Club de Fútbol72234:78
12Rayo Vallecano722311:168
13CA Osasuna72236:138
14Real Club Celta de Vigo71428:67
15Reial Club Deportiu Espanyol721410:107
16Real Racing Club de Santander721411:217
17Levante UD61238:125
18Elche CF712411:175
19Valencia CF71154:134
20Málaga CF70343:123

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.