Tigres UANL — Club León, Liga MX

Mexico, Liga MXOctober 21 at 03:00 AM

Tigres UANL

2.4WLDDD

—

Club León

1.5WDWLD

Outcome probability

572419

Tigres UANL57%Draw24%Club León19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Tigres UANL57%1.75—

XDraw24%4.17—

2Club León19%5.32—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes44%

ours 2.28

No56%

ours 1.78

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricTigres UANLClub LeónCombined

Goals scored0.331.001.33

Conceded0.500.831.33

Corners7.88.07.9

Cards1.81.83.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Tigres UANLClub León
15Table position5
52.00%Possession53.80%
3.2Days of rest3.1
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Tigres UANL look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 57%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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