Puebla FC — Club León, Liga MX

Mexico, Liga MXOctober 10 at 01:00 AM

Puebla FC

0.8LDLWL

—

Club León

1.5WDWLD

Outcome probability

362836

Puebla FC36%Draw28%Club León36%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Puebla FC36%2.77—

XDraw28%3.54—

2Club León36%2.80—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes46%

ours 2.17

No54%

ours 1.85

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricPuebla FCClub LeónCombined

Goals scored0.831.502.33

Conceded1.171.002.17

Corners11.78.510.1

Cards1.21.52.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Puebla FCClub León
9Table position5
45.30%Possession50.30%
12.9Days of rest12
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Puebla FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 36%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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