Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.70
No41%
ours 2.44
All matches
—
Leon — America, Liga MX
Mexico, Liga MX
Leon
1.5WDWLD
America
2.8WDLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
31%25%44%
Leon31%Draw25%America44%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Leon3.18—
XDraw4.07—
2America2.27—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLeonAmericaCombined
Goals scored1.172.173.34
Conceded1.001.502.50
Corners7.611.29.4
Cards1.61.22.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
LeonAmerica
Club León 31%, Club América 44%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
Club León 31%Draw 25%Club América 44%
1st half
35 · 39 · 26
2nd half
23 · 36 · 40
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 7.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Leon
- homeJuarez2:1
- awayQueretaro1:1
- homeAtletico San Luis2:0
- awayPumas UNAM1:3
- awayAtlante1:1
America
- awayNecaxa4:2
- homeGuadalajara2:2
- awayCruz Azul3:4
- homePuebla2:0
- awayJuarez2:1
Head to head
- 04/22/26Liga MX2:3
- 11/02/25Liga MX0:2
- 02/20/25Liga MX1:1
- 10/06/24Liga MX1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Deportivo Toluca1062223:1220
Deportivo Toluca1062223:12202America962121:1020
America962121:10203
Guadalajara1053217:1018
Guadalajara1053217:10184
Queretaro952213:817
Queretaro952213:8175Leon1052314:1117
Leon1052314:11176
Atlas1052316:1717
Atlas1052316:17177
Cruz Azul1051419:1816
Cruz Azul1051419:1816Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.