Both teams to score
Yes56%
ours 1.79
No44%
ours 2.26
All matches
Napoli — Lazio, Serie A
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
46%27%27%
Napoli46%Draw27%Lazio27%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Napoli2.18—
XDraw3.64—
2Lazio3.75—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3612 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3602 matches
Cards
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72%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3593 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
NapoliLazio
SSC Napoli 46%, SS Lazio 27%. The safest is “SSC Napoli or draw” at 73%.
SSC Napoli 46%Draw 27%SS Lazio 27%
1st half
44 · 37 · 18
2nd half
37 · 33 · 30
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total fouls: Over 18.5
71%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricNapoliLazioCombined
Goals scored2.403.205.60
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Napoli- Unbeaten at home in 4 matches3:3, 4:3, 3:0, 1:0, 0:1
- Conceded in every one of the last 5 matches11 goals conceded
- 12 goals in the last 5 matches4:1, 3:3, 4:3, 0:1, 1:3
Lazio- 16 goals in the last 5 matches6:2, 2:1, 3:0, 3:1, 2:0
- 5 wins in a row6:2, 2:1, 3:0, 3:1, 2:0
- Unbeaten away in 5 matches6:2, 3:0, 2:0, 2:1, 1:0
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Napoli
- awayMonza4:1
- homeRoma3:3
- homeBodo/Glimt4:3
- awayVenezia0:1
- awayVillarreal1:3
Lazio
- awaySassuolo6:2
- homeParma2:1
- awayJuventus3:0
- homeMonza3:1
- awayVenezia2:0
Head to head
- 04/18/26Serie A0:2
- 01/04/26Serie A2:0
- 02/15/25Serie A2:2
- 12/08/24Serie A0:1
More matches in this competition
Italy, Serie A: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.