All matches

AC Milan — Inter Milan, Serie A

Italy, Serie A

AC Milan
2.8WLDDW
—
Inter Milan
3.9DWLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
26%24%50%
AC Milan26%Draw24%Inter Milan50%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1AC Milan26%3.78—
XDraw24%4.24—
2Inter Milan50%2.00—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.67

No40%

ours 2.49

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAC MilanInter MilanCombined
Goals scored0.000.000.00
Conceded0.000.000.00
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

AC MilanInter Milan

AC Milan 26%, FC Internazionale Milano 50%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.

AC Milan 26%Draw 24%FC Internazionale Milano 50%
1st half
28 · 36 · 36
2nd half
30 · 35 · 35
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 10.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

AC Milan

  • homeLecce3:0
  • homeBenfica0:2
  • awayLazio2:2
  • awayJuventus1:1
  • homeVenezia2:0

Inter Milan

  • awayRoma2:2
  • homeUdinese5:3
  • awayReal Madrid1:2
  • homeNapoli3:2
  • awayCagliari1:0

Head to head

  • 03/08/26Serie A1:0
  • 11/23/25Serie A1:0
  • 02/02/25Serie A1:1
  • 09/22/24Serie A2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Roma541014:313
2Inter Milan541015:813
3Lazio54108:313
4Cagliari54015:212
5AC Milan532010:411
6Frosinone53119:410
7Juventus53118:410

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.