Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.76
No43%
ours 2.31
All matches
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Udinese — Roma, Serie A
Italy, Serie A
Udinese
1.6LLLWD
Roma
3.3DWDWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
20%22%59%
Udinese20%Draw22%Roma59%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Udinese5.07—
XDraw4.63—
2Roma1.70—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricUdineseRomaCombined
Goals scored0.500.000.50
Conceded1.000.001.00
Corners14.0——
Cards1.5——
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
UdineseRoma
Udinese Calcio 20%, AS Roma 59%. The safest is “No draw” at 78%.
Udinese Calcio 20%Draw 22%AS Roma 59%
1st half
26 · 37 · 37
2nd half
25 · 34 · 41
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Second half total: Under 2.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Udinese
- homeCagliari0:1
- awayInter Milan3:5
- homeLazio1:2
- awayMonza3:2
- homeComo1:1
Roma
- homeInter Milan2:2
- awayTorino2:0
- awayFenerbahce1:1
- homeAtalanta2:1
- awayLecce4:0
Head to head
- 02/02/26Serie A1:0
- 11/09/25Serie A0:2
- 01/26/25Serie A1:2
- 09/22/24Serie A0:3
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Roma541014:313
Roma541014:3132
Inter Milan541015:813
Inter Milan541015:8133
Lazio54108:313
Lazio54108:3134
Cagliari54015:212
Cagliari54015:2125
AC Milan532010:411
AC Milan532010:4116
Frosinone53119:410
Frosinone53119:4107
Juventus53118:410
Juventus53118:4108
Como53119:610
Como53119:6109
Napoli52127:67
Napoli52127:6710
Sassuolo52129:97
Sassuolo52129:9711
Atalanta52035:76
Atalanta52035:7612
Lecce52035:106
Lecce52035:10613Udinese51138:114
Udinese51138:11414
Torino51135:84
Torino51135:8415
Parma51134:74
Parma51134:74Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.