Corinthians vs Fluminense: result 1:3
Final score 1:3. Before kick-off VARStats gave: Corinthians 39%, draw 31%, Fluminense 30%.
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Line-upsCorinthians4-2-3-1—Fluminense4-2-3-1
Starting line-ups and substitutes. Usually out about an hour before kick-off.
Corinthians 4-2-3-1
Coach: Fernando Diniz
Starting XI
1GKHugo Souza
2DFMatheuzinho
55DFI. Machado13DFGustavo Henrique
21DFMatheus Bidu
49MFAndre14MFRaniele
37MFKaio César
8MFR. Garro
7MFBreno
10FWM. Depay
Substitutes
61MFDieguinho
4DFJoão Pedro
51GKKauê Camargo
18FWPedro Raul
11FWVitinho
26DFF. Angileri
77MFJ. Lingard
20DFP. Milans
23MFMatheus Pereira
35MFCharles
29MFAllan
56FWGuilherme Inácio
Fluminense 4-2-3-1
Coach: Marcão
Starting XI
1GKFábio
2DFSamuel Xavier
3DFThiago Silva
29DFJ. Millán
6DFRenê
16MFNonato
8MFMartinelli
17MFA. Canobbio
32MFL. Acosta
90MFK. Serna
7FWHulk
Substitutes
13DFGuilherme Arana
35MFHércules
21DFIgor Rabello
44DFJemmes
46DFJulio Fidelis
94MFOtávio
10MFPH Ganso
28FWRiquelme
11FWJ. Savarino
98GKVitor Eudes
19FWR. Castillo
22DFJ. Freytes
Match stats
How the match went in numbers.
How the forecast did
In each forecast type the prediction is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.
- Match result MissedCorinthians39%
Actual: Fluminense — we had 30%
- Total goals MissedUnder 2.564%
Actual: Over 2.5 — we had 36%
- Both teams to score MissedNo56%
Actual: Yes — we had 44%
The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes of the same forecast are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.
Model and prices
Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed
Form and context
Corinthians
- homeMirassol2:0
- awayVasco da Gama2:3
- homeVitoria1:1
- awayPalmeiras1:4
- awayInternacional1:2
Fluminense
- homeInternacional2:1
- awayChapecoense1:2
- homeSantos1:2
- awayFlamengo0:1
- homeCoritiba4:0
Head to head
- 09/20/26Serie A1:3
- 04/02/26Serie A1:3
- 09/14/25Serie A1:0
- 04/16/25Serie A0:2
- 08/18/24Serie A0:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
More matches in this competition
Brazil, Serie A: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every outcome of the forecast published before the match.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.


