All matches

Corinthians vs Fluminense: result 1:3

Brazil, Serie AMatch finished

Final score 1:3. Before kick-off VARStats gave: Corinthians 39%, draw 31%, Fluminense 30%.

1.8WLDLL
1:3HT 0:1
2.4WLLLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Pre-match forecastpublished
39%31%30%
CorinthiansPrice 2.1539%DrawPrice 3.2231%FluminensePrice 3.7630%
Line-upsCorinthians4-2-3-1—Fluminense4-2-3-1

Starting line-ups and substitutes. Usually out about an hour before kick-off.

Corinthians4-2-3-1Fluminense4-2-3-1

Corinthians 4-2-3-1

Coach: Fernando Diniz

Starting XI

  • 1GKBrazilHugo Souza
  • 2DFBrazilMatheuzinho
  • 55DFI. Machado
  • 13DFBrazilGustavo Henrique
  • 21DFBrazilMatheus Bidu
  • 49MFAndre
  • 14MFBrazilRaniele
  • 37MFBrazilKaio César
  • 8MFArgentinaR. Garro
  • 7MFBrazilBreno
  • 10FWNetherlandsM. Depay

Substitutes

  • 61MFBrazilDieguinho
  • 4DFBrazilJoão Pedro
  • 51GKBrazilKauê Camargo
  • 18FWBrazilPedro Raul
  • 11FWBrazilVitinho
  • 26DFArgentinaF. Angileri
  • 77MFEnglandJ. Lingard
  • 20DFUruguayP. Milans
  • 23MFBrazilMatheus Pereira
  • 35MFBrazilCharles
  • 29MFBrazilAllan
  • 56FWBrazilGuilherme Inácio

Fluminense 4-2-3-1

Coach: Marcão

Starting XI

  • 1GKBrazilFábio
  • 2DFBrazilSamuel Xavier
  • 3DFBrazilThiago Silva
  • 29DFColombiaJ. Millán
  • 6DFBrazilRenê
  • 16MFBrazilNonato
  • 8MFBrazilMartinelli
  • 17MFUruguayA. Canobbio
  • 32MFArgentinaL. Acosta
  • 90MFColombiaK. Serna
  • 7FWBrazilHulk

Substitutes

  • 13DFBrazilGuilherme Arana
  • 35MFBrazilHércules
  • 21DFBrazilIgor Rabello
  • 44DFBrazilJemmes
  • 46DFBrazilJulio Fidelis
  • 94MFBrazilOtávio
  • 10MFBrazilPH Ganso
  • 28FWBrazilRiquelme
  • 11FWVenezuelaJ. Savarino
  • 98GKBrazilVitor Eudes
  • 19FWArgentinaR. Castillo
  • 22DFArgentinaJ. Freytes

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

2.27xG1.20
57Possession, %43
20Shots10
7Shots on target6
11Corners1
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards0
16Fouls21
1Offsides1

How the forecast did

In each forecast type the prediction is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.

0 of 3
Main predictions landedresult, half, totals, both to score
All forecast types: landed 62 of 99void — 1
  • Match result Missed
    Corinthians39%

    Actual: Fluminense — we had 30%

  • Total goals Missed
    Under 2.564%

    Actual: Over 2.5 — we had 36%

  • Both teams to score Missed
    No56%

    Actual: Yes — we had 44%

The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes of the same forecast are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.

Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Corinthians39%45%2.542.15-5.7
XDraw31%30%3.273.22+0.9
2Fluminense30%25%3.333.76+4.8

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Form and context

Corinthians

  • homeMirassol2:0
  • awayVasco da Gama2:3
  • homeVitoria1:1
  • awayPalmeiras1:4
  • awayInternacional1:2

Fluminense

  • homeInternacional2:1
  • awayChapecoense1:2
  • homeSantos1:2
  • awayFlamengo0:1
  • homeCoritiba4:0

Head to head

  • 09/20/26Serie A1:3
  • 04/02/26Serie A1:3
  • 09/14/25Serie A1:0
  • 04/16/25Serie A0:2
  • 08/18/24Serie A0:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Palmeiras332010356:2270
3Cruzeiro331761052:4657
4Fluminense33159952:4254
5Athletico Paranaense33159950:4054
6Bahia331411848:4253
7Atletico Mineiro331481144:3950
8Red Bull Bragantino341381344:3947
9Santos3412111150:4947
10Sao Paulo331271439:3943
11Coritiba331191340:5042
12Botafogo331091445:5339
13Vasco da Gama321081440:4938
14Vitoria331081535:4838
15Gremio339101437:4437
16Mirassol339101437:4737
17Corinthians33991536:4236
18Internacional338111437:4235
19Remo336111636:5129

Full breakdown

Every outcome of the forecast published before the match.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.