All matches

Sao Paulo — Corinthians, Serie A

Brazil, Serie A

Sao Paulo
2.0LWLWW
—
Corinthians
1.8LLLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
50%26%23%
Sao Paulo50%Draw26%Corinthians23%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Sao Paulo50%1.99—
XDraw26%3.79—
2Corinthians23%4.28—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.92

No48%

ours 2.09

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSao PauloCorinthiansCombined
Goals scored0.170.170.34
Conceded0.330.500.83
Corners15.012.013.5
Cards1.03.04.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Sao PauloCorinthians

São Paulo FC 50%, SC Corinthians Paulista 23%. The safest is “São Paulo FC or draw” at 76%.

São Paulo FC 50%Draw 26%SC Corinthians Paulista 23%
1st half
43 · 39 · 18
2nd half
31 · 40 · 29
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 12.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Sao Paulo

  • homeSantos1:2
  • homeInternacional1:0
  • awayPalmeiras0:2
  • homeCA Mineiro2:0
  • homeRed Bull Bragantino2:1

Corinthians

  • homeFluminense1:3
  • awayFlamengo1:2
  • homeChapecoense1:2
  • homeSantos0:1
  • awayCoritiba1:2

Head to head

  • 05/10/26Serie A2:3
  • 11/20/25Serie A1:3
  • 07/20/25Serie A2:0
  • 09/29/24Serie A3:1
  • 06/16/24Serie A2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8Santos28118943:4141
9Coritiba281081037:4338
10Sao Paulo281061233:3236
11Red Bull Bragantino281061233:3236
12Botafogo28981141:4535
13Vitoria28961328:4233
14Corinthians28881229:3232
15Mirassol28881233:4232
16Vasco da Gama27871234:4131

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.