Both teams to score
Yes54%
ours 1.87
No47%
ours 2.15
All matches
—
Flamengo — Gremio, Serie A
Brazil, Serie A
Flamengo
3.6WWWWW
Gremio
1.5DLLLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
74%18%
Flamengo74%Draw18%Gremio8%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Flamengo1.36—
XDraw5.41—
2Gremio12.61—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricFlamengoGremioCombined
Goals scored0.330.000.33
Conceded0.170.000.17
Corners7.011.09.0
Cards3.05.08.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
FlamengoGremio
CR Flamengo 74%, Grêmio FB Porto Alegrense 8%. The safest is “CR Flamengo or draw” at 91%.
CR Flamengo 74%Draw 18%Grêmio FB Porto Alegrense 8%
1st half
52 · 35 · 13
2nd half
51 · 32 · 17
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Under 5.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Flamengo
- homeRed Bull Bragantino2:1
- homeCorinthians2:1
- awayRemo1:0
- homeMirassol2:0
- homeBotafogo3:0
Gremio
- homePalmeiras0:0
- awayBotafogo2:3
- homeVasco da Gama1:2
- awayVitoria0:1
- homeChapecoense3:1
Head to head
- 05/10/26Serie A1:0
- 08/31/25Serie A1:1
- 04/13/25Serie A2:0
- 09/22/24Serie A2:3
- 06/13/24Serie A2:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Flamengo28186455:2360
Flamengo28186455:23602
Palmeiras28169347:2157
Palmeiras28169347:21573
CA Paranaense28147743:3249
CA Paranaense28147743:32494
Fluminense28139644:3648
Fluminense28139644:36485
Bahia281210643:3546
Bahia281210643:35466
Cruzeiro28136942:4045
Cruzeiro28136942:40457
CA Mineiro28127937:3243
CA Mineiro28127937:32438
Santos28118943:4141
Santos28118943:41419
Coritiba281081037:4338
Coritiba281081037:433810
Sao Paulo281061233:3236
Sao Paulo281061233:323611
Red Bull Bragantino281061233:3236
Red Bull Bragantino281061233:323612
Botafogo28981141:4535
Botafogo28981141:453513
Vitoria28961328:4233
Vitoria28961328:423314
Corinthians28881229:3232
Corinthians28881229:323215
Mirassol28881233:4232
Mirassol28881233:423216
Vasco da Gama27871234:4131
Vasco da Gama27871234:413117Gremio28781330:3829
Gremio28781330:382918
Internacional286101230:3628
Internacional286101230:362819
Remo28581532:4723
Remo28581532:4723Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.