All matches

Corinthians — Vitoria, Serie A

Brazil, Serie A

Corinthians
1.8LLLLL
—
Vitoria
1.7LDWLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
54%25%21%
Corinthians54%Draw25%Vitoria21%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Corinthians54%1.87—
XDraw25%3.95—
2Vitoria21%4.75—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.83

No45%

ours 2.21

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCorinthiansVitoriaCombined
Goals scored0.500.831.33
Conceded1.331.172.50
Corners12.010.811.4
Cards2.32.04.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

CorinthiansVitoria

SC Corinthians Paulista 54%, EC Vitória 21%. The safest is “SC Corinthians Paulista or draw” at 79%.

SC Corinthians Paulista 54%Draw 25%EC Vitória 21%
1st half
39 · 38 · 23
2nd half
41 · 38 · 22
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Corinthians

  • homeFluminense1:3
  • awayFlamengo1:2
  • homeChapecoense1:2
  • homeSantos0:1
  • awayCoritiba1:2

Vitoria

  • homeCruzeiro1:3
  • awayMirassol2:2
  • homeGremio1:0
  • awayCA Mineiro1:2
  • homeBahia0:2

Head to head

  • 04/18/26Serie A0:0
  • 10/25/25Serie A1:0
  • 06/01/25Serie A0:0
  • 11/09/24Serie A2:1
  • 07/04/24Serie A3:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
11Red Bull Bragantino281061233:3236
12Botafogo28981141:4535
13Vitoria28961328:4233
14Corinthians28881229:3232
15Mirassol28881233:4232
16Vasco da Gama27871234:4131

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.