Vitoria vs Cruzeiro: result 1:3
Final score 1:3. Before kick-off VARStats gave: Cruzeiro 40%, Vitoria 31%, draw 30%.
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Line-upsVitoria4-2-3-1—Cruzeiro4-2-3-1
Starting line-ups and substitutes. Usually out about an hour before kick-off.
Vitoria 4-2-3-1
Coach: Jair Ventura
Starting XI
1GKLucas Arcanjo
98DFMateusinho
25DFCacá
36DFLuan Cândido
83DFJamerson
6MFE. Martínez
95MFCaíque
33MFErick
10MFMatheuzinho
12MFD. Tarzia
91FWRene
Substitutes
2DFE. Brítez
9FWAlex Bruno
26MFEdenilson
23FWFabrício
20FWLucas Silva
7FWMarinho
8MFT. Pochettino
16MFRúben Ismael
79FWRenato Kayzer
71GKYuri Sena
88MFZé Vitor
3DFDarlan Silva Dutra
Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1
Coach: Artur Jorge
Starting XI
81GKOtávio Eleodoro Rezende Costa
23DFFágner
43DFJoão Marcelo
34DFJonathan
27DFG. Rojas
8MFGerson
5MFZé Lucas
99MF
K. Arroyo10MFMatheus Pereira
20MFWesley Gassova
19FWKaio Jorge
Substitutes
12DFWilliam
94FWWanderson
6DFM. Viña
25DFL. Villalba
97FWL. Rodríguez
7MFMatheus Henrique
16MFLucas Silva
38MFFelipe Morais15DFFabrício Bruno
67FWJoão Gabriel e Costa Cesco
9FWBruno Rodrigues
1GKCássio
Match stats
How the match went in numbers.
How the forecast did
In each forecast type the prediction is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.
- Match result LandedCruzeiro40%
- Total goals MissedUnder 2.561%
Actual: Over 2.5 — we had 39%
- Both teams to score MissedNo54%
Actual: Yes — we had 46%
The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes of the same forecast are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.
Model and prices
Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed
Form and context
Vitoria
- awayCoritiba0:2
- homeAthletico Paranaense1:1
- awayCorinthians1:1
- awaySao Paulo1:2
- homeChapecoense4:0
Cruzeiro
- awayAtletico Mineiro1:0
- homeRemo1:0
- awayGremio4:2
- awayRed Bull Bragantino2:4
- homeSao Paulo2:0
Head to head
- 09/20/26Serie A1:3
- 04/01/26Serie A0:3
- 11/01/25Serie A1:3
- 06/12/25Serie A0:0
- 08/19/24Serie A2:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
More matches in this competition
Brazil, Serie A: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every outcome of the forecast published before the match.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.


