Both teams to score
Yes54%
ours 1.86book 2.03
No46%
ours 2.16book 1.70
All matches
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Palmeiras — Corinthians, Serie A
Brazil, Serie A
Palmeiras
3.5DWDDW
Corinthians
1.8LLLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
65%22%13%
PalmeirasMarket 1.5665%DrawMarket 4.0722%CorinthiansMarket 6.5013%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Palmeiras1.531.56+1.0
XDraw4.554.07-2.6
2Corinthians7.816.50-2.6
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricPalmeirasCorinthiansCombined
Goals scored1.170.671.84
Conceded0.331.672.00
Corners11.013.212.1
Cards2.62.24.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
PalmeirasCorinthians
SE Palmeiras 65%, SC Corinthians Paulista 13%. The safest is “SE Palmeiras or draw” at 84%.
SE Palmeiras 65%Draw 22%SC Corinthians Paulista 13%
1st half
49 · 35 · 15
2nd half
37 · 39 · 24
Bookmakers: 1.56 · 4.07 · 6.50
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Second half total: Over 0.5
71%1.22
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Palmeiras
- awayGremio0:0
- homeSao Paulo2:0
- awayBotafogo0:0
- awayMirassol1:1
- homeVasco da Gama4:1
Corinthians
- homeFluminense1:3
- awayFlamengo1:2
- homeChapecoense1:2
- homeSantos0:1
- awayCoritiba1:2
Head to head
- 04/12/26Serie A0:0
- 08/31/25Serie A1:1
- 04/12/25Serie A2:0
- 11/04/24Serie A0:2
- 07/01/24Serie A2:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Flamengo28186455:2360
Flamengo28186455:23602Palmeiras28169347:2157
Palmeiras28169347:21573
CA Paranaense28147743:3249
CA Paranaense28147743:32494
Fluminense28139644:3648
Fluminense28139644:36485
Bahia281210643:3546
Bahia281210643:35466
Cruzeiro28136942:4045
Cruzeiro28136942:40457
CA Mineiro28127937:3243
CA Mineiro28127937:32438
Santos28118943:4141
Santos28118943:41419
Coritiba281081037:4338
Coritiba281081037:433810
Sao Paulo281061233:3236
Sao Paulo281061233:323611
Red Bull Bragantino281061233:3236
Red Bull Bragantino281061233:323612
Botafogo28981141:4535
Botafogo28981141:453513
Vitoria28961328:4233
Vitoria28961328:423314Corinthians28881229:3232
Corinthians28881229:323215
Mirassol28881233:4232
Mirassol28881233:423216
Vasco da Gama27871234:4131
Vasco da Gama27871234:4131Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.