Both teams to score
Yes56%
ours 1.79
No44%
ours 2.26
All matches
Red Star Belgrade — Radnik Surdulica, SuperLiga
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
82%13%
Red Star Belgrade82%Draw13%Radnik Surdulica6%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Red Star Belgrade1.23—
XDraw7.76—
2Radnik Surdulica18.18—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3725 matches
Corners
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3714 matches
Cards
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3703 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Red Star BelgradeRadnik Surdulica
Red Star Belgrade 82%, FK Radnik Surdulica 6%. The safest is “Red Star Belgrade or draw” at 94%.
Red Star Belgrade 82%Draw 13%FK Radnik Surdulica 6%
1st half
54 · 31 · 15
2nd half
66 · 25 · 9
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Over 2.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with Premium
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricRed Star BelgradeRadnik SurdulicaCombined
Goals scored2.601.604.20
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Red Star Belgrade- Unbeaten at home in 6 matches2:2, 5:1, 3:0, 2:1, 4:0
- Best attack in the league — 33 goals in 13 matches1st place, 37 points
- 13 goals in the last 5 matches1:0, 2:2, 5:1, 2:3, 3:0
Radnik Surdulica- Winless away in 7 matches0:1, 0:1, 1:1, 1:5, 1:2
- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches7 goals conceded
- Led at half-time in 6 of 10 matches
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Red Star Belgrade
- awayOFK Beograd1:0
- homeCopenhagen2:2
- homeMladost Lucani5:1
- awayLugano2:3
- awayRadnicki Kragujevac3:0
Radnik Surdulica
- awayRadnicki Kragujevac0:1
- homeRadnicki Nis3:0
- awayIMT Novi Beograd0:1
- homePartizan4:4
- awayZemun1:1
Head to head
- 09/10/26SuperLiga0:0
- 05/17/26SuperLiga0:0
- 04/05/26SuperLiga2:1
- 11/02/25SuperLiga1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Serbia, SuperLiga: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.