Radnicki Kragujevac — Novi Pazar, SuperLiga

Serbia, SuperLigaNovember 1 at 12:00 AM

Radnicki Kragujevac

2.0WWDDW

—

Novi Pazar

2.0DDWDL

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

48%26%25%

Radnicki Kragujevac48%Draw26%Novi Pazar25%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Radnicki Kragujevac48%2.07—

XDraw26%3.79—

2Novi Pazar25%3.95—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.68

No40%

ours 2.47

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricRadnicki KragujevacNovi PazarCombined

Goals scored1.670.832.50

Conceded0.500.501.00

Corners10.07.78.8

Cards2.72.75.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Radnicki KragujevacNovi Pazar

FK Radnički 1923 Kragujevac 48%, FK Novi Pazar 25%. The safest is “FK Radnički 1923 Kragujevac or draw” at 76%.

FK Radnički 1923 Kragujevac 48%Draw 26%FK Novi Pazar 25%

1st half

42 · 35 · 23

2nd half

35 · 38 · 26

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 6.5

68%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context