All matches

Real Madrid — Sevilla, La Liga

Spain, La Liga

Real Madrid
4.0LWWWL
—
Sevilla
1.6LWWDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
73%18%
Real Madrid73%Draw18%Sevilla9%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Real Madrid73%1.38—
XDraw18%5.47—
2Sevilla9%11.10—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.75

No43%

ours 2.33

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricReal MadridSevillaCombined
Goals scored1.670.832.50
Conceded1.001.172.17
Corners10.56.48.4
Cards1.32.23.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Real MadridSevilla

Real Madrid CF 73%, Sevilla FC 9%. The safest is “Real Madrid CF or draw” at 87%.

Real Madrid CF 73%Draw 18%Sevilla FC 9%
1st half
54 · 32 · 13
2nd half
43 · 34 · 23
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 11.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Real Madrid

  • awayAtletico Madrid1:2
  • awayElche3:2
  • homeRayo Vallecano4:1
  • homeInter Milan2:1
  • awayReal Betis0:1

Sevilla

  • homeBarcelona1:3
  • awayDeportivo La Coruna1:0
  • homeValencia1:0
  • awayEspanyol1:1
  • homeAtletico Madrid1:3

Head to head

  • 05/17/26La Liga1:0
  • 12/20/25La Liga2:0
  • 05/18/25La Liga2:0
  • 12/22/24La Liga4:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Atletico Madrid751116:716
3Real Betis75119:716
4Real Madrid750218:815
5Sevilla741210:913
6Alaves732211:611
7Deportivo La Coruna724110:810

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.