Both teams to score
Yes61%
ours 1.65
No39%
ours 2.54
All matches
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Roma — Real Madrid, UEFA Champions League
Europe, UEFA Champions League
Roma
3.3DWDWW
Real Madrid
4.0LWWWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
37%26%37%
Roma37%Draw26%Real Madrid37%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Roma2.69—
XDraw3.92—
2Real Madrid2.68—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricRomaReal MadridCombined
Goals scored1.831.673.50
Conceded0.671.171.84
Corners7.411.69.5
Cards1.61.83.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
RomaReal Madrid
AS Roma 37%, Real Madrid CF 37%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
AS Roma 37%Draw 26%Real Madrid CF 37%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 10.5
68%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Roma
- homeInter Milan2:2
- awayTorino2:0
- awayFenerbahce1:1
- homeAtalanta2:1
- awayLecce4:0
Real Madrid
- awayAtletico Madrid1:2
- awayElche3:2
- homeRayo Vallecano4:1
- homeInter Milan2:1
- awayReal Betis0:1
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
39
Borussia Dortmund11003:23
Borussia Dortmund11003:2340
Liverpool11002:13
Liverpool11002:1341Real Madrid11002:13
Real Madrid11002:1342
Arsenal11001:03
Arsenal11001:0343
LASK31025:53
LASK31025:5344
Lech Poznan21015:53
Lech Poznan21015:5345
Omonia21011:13
Omonia21011:1346
Celtic21014:53
Celtic21014:5347
Vardar21013:43
Vardar21013:4348
Riga21013:43
Riga21013:4349
KuPS41034:63
KuPS41034:6350
Floriana21013:53
Floriana21013:5351
Sparta Prague21012:43
Sparta Prague21012:4352
Shakhtar Donetsk10101:11
Shakhtar Donetsk10101:1153Roma10101:11
Roma10101:1154
PSV10101:11
PSV10101:1155
Union Saint-Gilloise20115:61
Union Saint-Gilloise20115:61Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.