Both teams to score
Yes54%
ours 1.86
No46%
ours 2.17
All matches
CSKA Sofia — Septemvri Sofia, First League
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
82%12%
CSKA Sofia82%Draw12%Septemvri Sofia6%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1CSKA Sofia1.21—
XDraw8.33—
2Septemvri Sofia18.15—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3725 matches
Corners
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3714 matches
Cards
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3703 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
CSKA SofiaSeptemvri Sofia
PFC CSKA Sofia 82%, FK Septemvri Sofia 6%. The safest is “PFC CSKA Sofia or draw” at 94%.
PFC CSKA Sofia 82%Draw 12%FK Septemvri Sofia 6%
1st half
55 · 33 · 12
2nd half
66 · 23 · 11
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total shots: Over 19.5
72%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricCSKA SofiaSeptemvri SofiaCombined
Goals scored1.801.002.80
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
CSKA Sofia- Best attack in the league — 29 goals in 12 matches1st place, 30 points
- Most shots on target in the league — 7.3 per match14 teams in the league
- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches7 goals conceded
Septemvri Sofia- 5 defeats in a row0:2, 2:3, 0:3, 1:2, 2:3
- Conceded in every one of the last 5 matches13 goals conceded
- Relegation zone: 14th of 14
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
CSKA Sofia
- homeLudogorets2:0
- awayNordsjaelland2:2
- homeMonaco1:2
- awayCSKA 19483:2
- awayLokomotiv Plovdiv1:1
Septemvri Sofia
- awayCherno More0:2
- homeDunav Ruse2:3
- homeBotev Plovdiv0:3
- awayLudogorets1:2
- homeBotev Vratsa2:3
Head to head
- 08/09/26First League3:0
- 02/28/26First League0:2
- 09/13/25First League3:1
- 03/29/25First League1:0
- 10/05/24First League0:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Bulgaria, First League: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.