All matches

PFC CSKA Sofia — PFC Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad, First League

Bulgaria, First League

PFC CSKA Sofia
3.0DWWDW
—
PFC Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad
3.3WWDDW
Outcome probability
373033
PFC CSKA Sofia37%Draw30%PFC Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad33%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1PFC CSKA Sofia37%2.70—
XDraw30%3.37—
2PFC Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad33%3.00—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes43%

ours 2.33

No57%

ours 1.75

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricPFC CSKA SofiaPFC Ludogorets 1945 RazgradCombined
Goals scored1.171.002.17
Conceded0.330.671.00
Corners9.08.88.9
Cards1.02.03.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    PFC CSKA SofiaPFC Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad
    2Matches in 14 days0
    4Days of rest14
    2Table position3
    58.00%Possession54.50%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    PFC CSKA Sofia look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 37%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 5.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

PFC CSKA Sofia

  • awayPFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv1:1
  • awayFC Lokomotiv Sofia 19292:0
  • homeFK Arda Kardzhali4:1
  • awayPFC Spartak 1918 Varna1:1
  • homePFC Cherno More Varna3:1

PFC Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad

  • homeFK Septemvri Sofia2:1
  • awayFC Lokomotiv Sofia 19292:1
  • awayPFC Spartak 1918 Varna1:1
  • homePFC Slavia Sofia1:1
  • homeFK Botev Plovdiv2:0

Head to head

  • 05/25/26First League0:1
  • 05/03/26First League1:0
  • 03/14/26First League0:3
  • 10/05/25First League0:0
  • 11/24/24First League2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1PFC Levski Sofia981021:425
2PFC CSKA Sofia1073024:724
3PFC Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad972016:723
4FK CSKA 1948 Sofia1071219:1022
5FK Arda Kardzhali1052315:1217

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.