Dunav Ruse — Levski Sofia, First League

Bulgaria, First LeagueOctober 31 at 03:30 PM

Dunav Ruse

1.6DLLDL

—

Levski Sofia

3.8LDWWW

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

13%19%68%

Dunav Ruse13%Draw19%Levski Sofia68%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Dunav Ruse13%7.56—

XDraw19%5.38—

2Levski Sofia68%1.47—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.92

No48%

ours 2.09

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricDunav RuseLevski SofiaCombined

Goals scored0.830.000.83

Conceded1.170.171.34

Corners11.39.010.1

Cards2.81.03.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.