All matches

CSKA 1948 — Spartak Varna, First League

Bulgaria, First League

CSKA 1948
2.6WWLWL
—
Spartak Varna
1.4LDDDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
67%21%12%
CSKA 194867%Draw21%Spartak Varna12%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1CSKA 194867%1.50—
XDraw21%4.72—
2Spartak Varna12%8.38—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.82

No45%

ours 2.22

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCSKA 1948Spartak VarnaCombined
Goals scored1.000.331.33
Conceded0.500.501.00
Corners8.311.09.6
Cards1.52.54.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

CSKA 1948Spartak Varna

FK CSKA 1948 Sofia 67%, PFC Spartak 1918 Varna 12%. The safest is “FK CSKA 1948 Sofia or draw” at 86%.

FK CSKA 1948 Sofia 67%Draw 21%PFC Spartak 1918 Varna 12%
1st half
48 · 35 · 17
2nd half
43 · 36 · 21
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Match result: Home

67%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

CSKA 1948

  • awaySlavia Sofia2:1
  • homeDunav Ruse2:1
  • awayLevski Sofia0:1
  • homeLokomotiv Plovdiv2:0
  • awaySeptemvri Sofia0:1

Spartak Varna

  • homeLokomotiv Sofia0:1
  • awaySlavia Sofia0:0
  • homeCSKA Sofia1:1
  • homeLudogorets1:1
  • awayLevski Sofia0:6

Head to head

  • 07/17/26First League2:2
  • 03/14/26First League2:1
  • 10/04/25First League1:1
  • 11/29/24First League1:1
  • 07/28/24First League2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2CSKA Sofia1073024:724
3Ludogorets972016:723
4CSKA 19481071219:1022
5Arda1052315:1217
6Botev Plovdiv1051416:1416
7Slavia Sofia102539:811
8Spartak Varna1024410:1510
9Botev Vratsa102359:199
10Septemvri Sofia102268:188

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.