All matches

Cherno More — Botev Vratsa, First League

Bulgaria, First League

Cherno More
1.9DDLLW
—
Botev Vratsa
1.6DDWLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
50%26%24%
Cherno More50%Draw26%Botev Vratsa24%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Cherno More50%2.02—
XDraw26%3.83—
2Botev Vratsa24%4.10—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.85

No46%

ours 2.17

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCherno MoreBotev VratsaCombined
Goals scored0.670.831.50
Conceded1.171.002.17
Corners7.09.08.0
Cards3.02.35.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Cherno MoreBotev Vratsa

PFC Cherno More Varna 50%, POFK Botev Vratsa 24%. The safest is “PFC Cherno More Varna or draw” at 79%.

PFC Cherno More Varna 50%Draw 26%POFK Botev Vratsa 24%
1st half
41 · 41 · 18
2nd half
38 · 36 · 26
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 10.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Cherno More

  • awayArda1:1
  • homeLokomotiv Sofia2:2
  • awayLokomotiv Plovdiv0:1
  • awayCSKA Sofia1:3
  • homeDunav Ruse3:1

Botev Vratsa

  • awayDunav Ruse2:2
  • homeLevski Sofia0:0
  • awaySeptemvri Sofia3:2
  • awayArda0:2
  • homeBotev Plovdiv1:0

Head to head

  • 07/19/26First League1:1
  • 02/20/26First League0:0
  • 08/29/25First League0:1
  • 12/07/24First League3:2
  • 08/12/24First League2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7Slavia Sofia102539:811
8Spartak Varna1024410:1510
9Botev Vratsa102359:199
10Septemvri Sofia102268:188
11Lokomotiv Sofia1014511:187
12Lokomotiv Plovdiv102175:137
13Cherno More1013611:206
14Dunav Ruse1012710:195

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.