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Once Caldas vs Bucaramanga: result 1:3

Colombia, Primera AMatch finished

Final score 1:3. Before kick-off VARStats gave: Once Caldas 41%, draw 31%, Bucaramanga 29%.

2.2WDDWW
1:3HT 0:2
2.4WLLDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Pre-match forecastpublished
41%31%29%
Once CaldasPrice 1.9341%DrawPrice 3.2231%BucaramangaPrice 3.9829%

Line-upsThe data provider has not sent line-ups for this match.

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

3.06xG0.98
70Possession, %30
29Shots8
12Shots on target5
9Corners1
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards0
10Fouls15
3Offsides1

How the forecast did

In each forecast type the prediction is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.

0 of 3
Main predictions landedresult, half, totals, both to score
All forecast types: landed 121 of 186void — 1
  • Match result Missed
    Once Caldas41%

    Actual: Bucaramanga — we had 29%

  • Total goals Missed
    Under 2.564%

    Actual: Over 2.5 — we had 36%

  • Both teams to score Missed
    No57%

    Actual: Yes — we had 43%

The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes of the same forecast are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.

Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Once Caldas41%49%2.461.93-8.6
XDraw31%28%3.253.22+2.5
2Bucaramanga29%23%3.503.98+6.1

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Form and context

Once Caldas

  • homeAlianza Valledupar1:0
  • homeDeportivo Pereira1:1
  • awayMillonarios1:1
  • awayIndependiente Medellin2:0
  • homeLlaneros1:0

Bucaramanga

  • homePasto2:1
  • awayIndependiente Santa Fe1:2
  • awayBoyaca Chico0:1
  • homeAmerica de Cali1:1
  • homeRionegro Aguilas1:1

Head to head

  • 09/26/26Primera A1:3
  • 03/19/26Primera A1:1
  • 09/10/25Primera A0:0
  • 02/09/25Primera A2:1
  • 08/11/24Primera A2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Deportivo Cali361612846:2660
5Junior4216121461:5560
6Once Caldas381416854:4358
7Deportes Tolima3915121249:4057
8Millonarios351313955:3752
9Independiente Medellin361571451:4952
10Bucaramanga351215851:3651
11Rionegro Aguilas3512121141:4548
12Inter Bogotá3811151249:5848

Full breakdown

Every outcome of the forecast published before the match.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.