Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.83
No45%
ours 2.21
All matches
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Pasto — Jaguares de Cordoba, Categoria Primera A
Colombia, Categoria Primera A
Pasto
1.6DLWWD
Jaguares de Cordoba
1.1LLLDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
59%25%17%
Pasto59%Draw25%Jaguares de Cordoba17%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Pasto1.71—
XDraw4.07—
2Jaguares de Cordoba5.92—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricPastoJaguares de CordobaCombined
Goals scored0.000.000.00
Conceded0.500.330.83
Corners4.012.08.0
Cards1.54.05.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
PastoJaguares de Cordoba
AD Pasto 59%, Jaguares de Córdoba FC 17%. The safest is “AD Pasto or draw” at 84%.
AD Pasto 59%Draw 25%Jaguares de Córdoba FC 17%
1st half
47 · 37 · 16
2nd half
40 · 38 · 22
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Over 0.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Pasto
- homeFortaleza CEIF0:0
- awayBoyaca Chico0:3
- homeOnce Caldas1:0
- awayAmerica de Cali1:0
- awayCucuta Deportivo2:2
Jaguares de Cordoba
- awayRionegro Aguilas0:2
- homeAlianza Valledupar1:2
- awayIndependiente Medellin1:2
- homeFortaleza CEIF2:2
- awayJunior3:3
Head to head
- 04/17/26Categoria Primera A3:2
- 08/03/24Categoria Primera A0:0
- 02/05/24Categoria Primera A1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9
Bucaramanga301113646:3046
Bucaramanga301113646:304610
Independiente Medellin311371145:4046
Independiente Medellin311371145:404611Pasto331271438:4643
Pasto331271438:464312
La Equidad349141142:5341
La Equidad349141142:534113
Rionegro Aguilas3010101034:4040
Rionegro Aguilas3010101034:404014
Llaneros318121132:3636
Llaneros318121132:363615
Fortaleza CEIF316141135:4532
Fortaleza CEIF316141135:453216
Cucuta Deportivo317101437:5431
Cucuta Deportivo317101437:543117
Boyaca Chico30851725:5029
Boyaca Chico30851725:502918
Alianza Valledupar316101525:5128
Alianza Valledupar316101525:512819Jaguares de Cordoba30671731:5325
Jaguares de Cordoba30671731:532520
Deportivo Pereira302121622:4918
Deportivo Pereira302121622:4918Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.