Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.81
No45%
ours 2.23
All matches
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Independiente Medellin — Alianza Valledupar, Categoria Primera A
Colombia, Categoria Primera A
Independiente Medellin
2.7LDLWD
Alianza Valledupar
1.3LWLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
63%23%14%
Independiente Medellin63%Draw23%Alianza Valledupar14%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Independiente Medellin1.59—
XDraw4.33—
2Alianza Valledupar7.20—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricIndependiente MedellinAlianza ValleduparCombined
Goals scored0.330.500.83
Conceded0.500.671.17
Corners9.010.59.8
Cards3.53.57.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Independiente MedellinAlianza Valledupar
Deportivo Independiente Medellín 63%, Alianza Valledupar FC 14%. The safest is “Deportivo Independiente Medellín or draw” at 85%.
Deportivo Independiente Medellín 63%Draw 23%Alianza Valledupar FC 14%
1st half
43 · 38 · 19
2nd half
46 · 36 · 18
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Under 6.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Independiente Medellin
- homeIndependiente Santa Fe0:1
- homeMillonarios2:2
- awayJunior0:2
- homeJaguares de Cordoba2:1
- awayBucaramanga2:2
Alianza Valledupar
- awayDeportivo Cali1:3
- awayJaguares de Cordoba2:1
- homeIndependiente Santa Fe1:4
- awayBoyaca Chico2:1
- homeJunior1:0
Head to head
- 04/19/26Categoria Primera A1:0
- 07/13/25Categoria Primera A1:1
- 01/27/25Categoria Primera A1:1
- 10/10/24Categoria Primera A2:0
- 02/24/24Categoria Primera A0:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8
Once Caldas331114848:4147
Once Caldas331114848:41479
Bucaramanga301113646:3046
Bucaramanga301113646:304610Independiente Medellin311371145:4046
Independiente Medellin311371145:404611
Pasto331271438:4643
Pasto331271438:464312
La Equidad349141142:5341
La Equidad349141142:534113
Rionegro Aguilas3010101034:4040
Rionegro Aguilas3010101034:404014
Llaneros318121132:3636
Llaneros318121132:363615
Fortaleza CEIF316141135:4532
Fortaleza CEIF316141135:453216
Cucuta Deportivo317101437:5431
Cucuta Deportivo317101437:543117
Boyaca Chico30851725:5029
Boyaca Chico30851725:502918Alianza Valledupar316101525:5128
Alianza Valledupar316101525:512819
Jaguares de Cordoba30671731:5325
Jaguares de Cordoba30671731:532520
Deportivo Pereira302121622:4918
Deportivo Pereira302121622:4918Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.