FK Arsenal Tivat — FK Dečić, Montenegrin First League

Montenegro, Montenegrin First LeagueOctober 10 at 03:00 PM

FK Arsenal Tivat

1.5LWLLL

—

FK Dečić

1.8DLDLW

Outcome probability

332938

FK Arsenal Tivat33%Draw29%FK Dečić38%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FK Arsenal Tivat33%3.01—

XDraw29%3.46—

2FK Dečić38%2.64—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes36%

ours 2.74

No64%

ours 1.57

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Arsenal TivatFK DečićCombined

Goals scored0.831.172.00

Conceded1.831.173.00

Corners7.89.28.5

Cards2.71.34.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FK Arsenal TivatFK Dečić
10Table position2
46.30%Possession55.50%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
FK Dečić travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 38%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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