All matches

FK Bokelj Kotor — OFK Petrovac, Montenegrin First League

Montenegro, Montenegrin First League

FK Bokelj Kotor
1.5WDWLD
—
OFK Petrovac
1.9LLDDD
Outcome probability
392932
FK Bokelj Kotor39%Draw29%OFK Petrovac32%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Bokelj Kotor39%2.58—
XDraw29%3.48—
2OFK Petrovac32%3.08—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes37%

ours 2.69

No63%

ours 1.59

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Bokelj KotorOFK PetrovacCombined
Goals scored1.000.671.67
Conceded0.671.332.00
Corners7.77.77.7
Cards1.01.32.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK Bokelj KotorOFK Petrovac
    3Table position9
    50.50%Possession50.80%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour FK Bokelj Kotor: a home win is rated at 39%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 2.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK Bokelj Kotor

  • homeFK Mladost Donja Gorica3:0
  • awayFK Jezero Plav1:1
  • homeFK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj2:1
  • awayFK Mornar Bar0:2
  • awayFK Budućnost Podgorica0:0

OFK Petrovac

  • awayFK Budućnost Podgorica1:4
  • homeFK Arsenal Tivat1:2
  • awayFK Dečić1:1
  • homeFK Sutjeska Nikšić0:0
  • homeFK Mornar Bar1:1

Head to head

  • 08/01/26Montenegrin First League1:0
  • 04/08/26Montenegrin First League0:1
  • 12/10/25Montenegrin First League0:0
  • 10/01/25Montenegrin First League1:2
  • 08/04/25Montenegrin First League0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1FK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj951315:1016
2FK Dečić943210:715
3FK Bokelj Kotor94328:515
4FK Sutjeska Nikšić942311:714
5FK Budućnost Podgorica942311:714
6FK Mornar Bar93429:713
7FK Mladost Donja Gorica93158:1510
8FK Jezero Plav92349:159
9OFK Petrovac91537:98
10FK Arsenal Tivat91445:117

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.