Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.74
No43%
ours 2.35
All matches
Lobos UPNFM — Motagua, Liga Nacional: match prediction and stats
Match prediction and stats
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
25%30%45%
Lobos UPNFM25%Draw30%Motagua45%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model and prices
Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Lobos UPNFM3.99—
XDraw3.37—
2Motagua2.21—
our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed
Quick predictions
The three most common questions — our probability next to the price.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair price and the comparison with the prices.
Combos — with Premium
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals prediction
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3839 matches
Corners prediction
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3828 matches
Cards prediction
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3818 matches
Lines for goals, corners and cards — with Premium
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. This block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Lobos UPNFMMotagua
Lobos UPNFM 25%, CD Motagua 45%. The safest is “CD Motagua or draw” at 75%.
Lobos UPNFM 25%Draw 30%CD Motagua 45%
1st half
24 · 44 · 32
2nd half
26 · 35 · 39
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total shots: Over 19.5
72%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLobos UPNFMMotaguaCombined
Goals scored2.001.403.40
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other nine metrics — with Premium
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Lobos UPNFM- 3 clean sheets in the last 54:3, 0:1, 4:0, 0:0, 2:0
- 10 goals in the last 5 matches4:3, 0:1, 4:0, 0:0, 2:0
Motagua- 3 clean sheets in the last 52:0, 2:0, 2:1, 0:1, 1:0
- 3 wins in a row2:0, 2:0, 2:1, 0:1, 1:0
- 2nd in the league for corners — 11.5 per match12 teams in the league
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Lobos UPNFM
- homePolicía Nacional4:3
- homeOlimpia0:1
- awayAtletico Independiente4:0
- homeMarathon0:0
- awayPlatense2:0
Motagua
- homeJuticalpa2:0
- awayPlatense2:0
- homeAtletico Choloma2:1
- awayReal Espana0:1
- homePolicía Nacional1:0
Head to head
- 08/22/26Liga Nacional1:4
- 05/01/26Liga Nacional2:1
- 03/11/26Liga Nacional0:2
- 11/28/25Liga Nacional0:0
- 09/14/25Liga Nacional3:3
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Honduras, Liga Nacional: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every forecast type the model computes. Our probability on the left, our fair price and the current price on the right.
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Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.