All matches

Motagua — Marathon, Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras

Honduras, Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras

Motagua
2.8LWDWW
—
Marathon
2.8LWWWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
43%29%28%
Motagua43%Draw29%Marathon28%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Motagua43%2.32—
XDraw29%3.49—
2Marathon28%3.54—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.83

No45%

ours 2.21

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMotaguaMarathonCombined
Goals scored0.171.331.50
Conceded0.170.500.67
Corners12.712.012.3
Cards0.00.00.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

MotaguaMarathon

CD Motagua 43%, CD Marathón 28%. The safest is “No draw” at 72%.

CD Motagua 43%Draw 29%CD Marathón 28%
1st half
36 · 41 · 22
2nd half
30 · 40 · 29
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Motagua

  • awayReal Espana0:1
  • homePolicia National1:0
  • awayAtletico Independiente0:0
  • homeOlancho2:1
  • homeLobos UPNFM4:1

Marathon

  • awayJuticalpa2:3
  • homeOlimpia1:0
  • homeEstrella Roja5:0
  • awayPolicia National2:1
  • homeReal Espana1:1

Head to head

  • 05/24/26Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras0:0
  • 05/22/26Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras1:1
  • 04/10/26Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras0:1
  • 02/15/26Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras1:1
  • 10/25/25Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Real Espana853013:418
2Olimpia852119:717
3Marathon852114:617
4Motagua841311:813
5Policia National832310:611
6Olancho82516:511

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.