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Fortaleza CEIF vs Deportes Tolima: result 2:2

Colombia, Primera AMatch finished

Final score 2:2. Before kick-off VARStats gave: Deportes Tolima 45%, draw 30%, Fortaleza CEIF 25%.

2:2HT 0:1
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Pre-match forecastpublished
25%30%45%
Fortaleza CEIFPrice 3.3525%DrawPrice 3.1030%Deportes TolimaPrice 2.1845%
Line-upsFortaleza CEIF4-2-3-1—Deportes Tolima4-2-3-1

Starting line-ups and substitutes. Usually out about an hour before kick-off.

Fortaleza CEIF4-2-3-1Deportes Tolima4-2-3-1

Fortaleza CEIF4-2-3-1

Coach: Diego Arias

Starting XI

  • 1GKArgentinaW. Barlasina
  • 16DFColombiaJ. Cajares
  • 6DFColombiaY. Díaz
  • 5DFJ. Medina Obando
  • 15DFColombiaS. Cuero
  • 28MFS. Vivas
  • 13MFBrandón Andrés Mejía Fajardo
  • 25MFJ. Garcia
  • 32MFMariano Vázquez
  • 8MFColombiaS. Navarro
  • 9FWColombiaJ. Herrera

Substitutes

  • 29FWMexicoT. Wilke Braams
  • 35DFAdrian Mosquera Rentería
  • 7FWColombiaÍ. Montaño
  • 2MFAndres Mosquera
  • 14MFColombiaL. Pico
  • 19FWArgentinaF. Pulicastro
  • 24FWColombiaJ. Salas
  • 12GKColombiaC. Santander
  • 27FWJ. Sinisterra

Deportes Tolima4-2-3-1

Coach: S. Oliveros

Starting XI

  • 1GKBrazilNeto Volpi
  • 17DFColombiaC. Arrieta
  • 3DFColombiaJ. Angulo
  • 2DFColombiaA. Angulo
  • 20DFColombiaJ. Hernández
  • 30MFS. P. Barbosa Gomez
  • 14MFColombiaH. Martínez
  • 24MFColombiaA. Parra
  • 8MFColombiaE. Valencia
  • 28MFColombiaE. López
  • 15FWUSAS. Aguayo

Substitutes

  • 32MFColombiaS. Guzmán
  • 21DFA. Ibarguen
  • 13GKMexicoM. Ortega
  • 4DFColombiaD. Pedrozo
  • 80MFColombiaB. Rovira
  • 9FWColombiaL. Sandoval
  • 29FWNéifer Sánchez
  • 7FWColombiaJ. Cabezas
  • 10MFColombiaL. Sánchez

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

1.55xG0.71
57Possession, %43
14Shots7
6Shots on target1
8Corners0
5Yellow cards6
1Red cards0
16Fouls15
2Offsides1

How the forecast did

In each forecast type the prediction is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.

0 of 3
Main predictions landedresult, half, totals, both to score
All forecast types: landed 164 of 255void — 1
  • Match result Missed
    Deportes Tolima45%

    Actual: Draw — we had 30%

  • Total goals Missed
    Under 2.564%

    Actual: Over 2.5 — we had 36%

  • Both teams to score Missed
    No60%

    Actual: Yes — we had 40%

The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes of the same forecast are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.

Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Fortaleza CEIF25%27%4.043.35-2.4
XDraw30%30%3.323.10+0.6
2Deportes Tolima45%43%2.222.18+1.9

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Form and context

Fortaleza CEIF

  • awayAmerica de Cali1:2
  • homeDeportivo Cali1:1
  • awayInter Bogotá1:2
  • homeMillonarios1:1
  • awayPasto0:0

Deportes Tolima

  • homePasto0:1
  • awayRionegro Aguilas1:2
  • awayJaguares de Cordoba2:3
  • awayAtletico Nacional0:0
  • homeBoyaca Chico0:0

Head to head

  • 09/27/26Primera A2:2
  • 03/19/26Primera A0:2
  • 12/08/25Primera A0:1
  • 11/18/25Primera A0:1
  • 08/31/25Primera A1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5Junior4216121461:5560
6Once Caldas381416854:4358
7Deportes Tolima3915121249:4057
8Millonarios351313955:3752
9Independiente Medellin361571451:4952
10Bucaramanga351215851:3651
11Rionegro Aguilas3512121141:4548
12Inter Bogotá3811151249:5848
13Pasto371371740:5246
14Llaneros3610121436:4342
15Cucuta Deportivo359101640:5937
16Alianza Valledupar368111730:5635
17Fortaleza CEIF356161339:5134
18Boyaca Chico36962128:6033
19Jaguares de Cordoba35872037:6231

Full breakdown

Every outcome of the forecast published before the match.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.