FK Radnik Bijeljina — FK Željezničar Sarajevo, Premier League of Bosnia

Bosnia and Herzegovina, Premier League of BosniaOctober 10 at 12:00 AM

FK Radnik Bijeljina

1.2DLLDD

—

FK Željezničar Sarajevo

2.2DDWWL

Outcome probability

272647

FK Radnik Bijeljina27%Draw26%FK Željezničar Sarajevo47%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FK Radnik Bijeljina27%3.66—

XDraw26%3.84—

2FK Željezničar Sarajevo47%2.14—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 2.02

No50%

ours 1.98

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Radnik BijeljinaFK Željezničar SarajevoCombined

Goals scored1.831.333.16

Conceded2.331.003.33

Corners11.77.79.7

Cards3.01.34.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FK Radnik BijeljinaFK Željezničar Sarajevo
10Table position4
48.30%Possession42.00%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
FK Željezničar Sarajevo travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 47%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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