Both teams to score
Yes58%
ours 1.73
No42%
ours 2.36
All matches
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Salzburg — Austria Lustenau, Bundesliga
Austria, Bundesliga
Salzburg
2.6WWDWW
Austria Lustenau
1.8WLLDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
63%22%15%
Salzburg63%Draw22%Austria Lustenau15%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Salzburg1.58—
XDraw4.50—
2Austria Lustenau6.83—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricSalzburgAustria LustenauCombined
Goals scored0.500.501.00
Conceded0.001.001.00
Corners11.013.312.2
Cards0.02.32.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
SalzburgAustria Lustenau
FC Salzburg 63%, SC Austria Lustenau 15%. The safest is “FC Salzburg or draw” at 87%.
FC Salzburg 63%Draw 22%SC Austria Lustenau 15%
1st half
47 · 35 · 19
2nd half
47 · 36 · 17
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 10.5
69%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Salzburg
- homeSturm Graz3:0
- awayLevski Sofia1:0
- awayRied1:1
- homeRapid Vienna5:1
- homeAustria Vienna4:1
Austria Lustenau
- homeRheindorf Altach2:0
- awayAustria Vienna1:2
- homeWSG Wattens0:4
- awaySturm Graz1:1
- homeWolfsberger AC2:1
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Rapid Vienna760121:718
Rapid Vienna760121:7182Salzburg752018:417
Salzburg752018:4173
LASK751119:716
LASK751119:7164
Sturm Graz73228:911
Sturm Graz73228:9115
Ried722311:128
Ried722311:1286
Hartberg722310:138
Hartberg722310:1387
WSG Wattens72239:128
WSG Wattens72239:1288Austria Lustenau72238:118
Austria Lustenau72238:1189
Grazer AK72236:168
Grazer AK72236:16810
Austria Vienna72147:137
Austria Vienna72147:137Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.