All matches

Gagra — Rustavi, Erovnuli Liga

Georgia, Erovnuli Liga

Gagra
1.4DLDLW
—
Rustavi
2.3LWDLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
31%26%43%
Gagra31%Draw26%Rustavi43%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Gagra31%3.25—
XDraw26%3.83—
2Rustavi43%2.32—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.92

No48%

ours 2.09

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricGagraRustaviCombined
Goals scored0.330.330.66
Conceded1.000.501.50
Corners11.37.39.3
Cards2.01.03.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

GagraRustavi

FC Gagra 31%, FC Rustavi 43%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.

FC Gagra 31%Draw 26%FC Rustavi 43%
1st half
25 · 44 · 31
2nd half
28 · 40 · 32
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 1.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Gagra

  • homeMeshakhte Tkibuli1:1
  • awayDinamo Tbilisi0:4
  • homeTorpedo Kutaisi1:1
  • awayDila Gori0:1
  • homeIberia 19992:0

Rustavi

  • homeIberia 19990:2
  • awayMeshakhte Tkibuli1:0
  • awaySpaeri1:1
  • homeDinamo Batumi0:1
  • awaySamgurali Tskaltubo1:1

Head to head

  • 08/22/26Erovnuli Liga0:3
  • 05/16/26Erovnuli Liga1:1
  • 03/15/26Erovnuli Liga2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Dinamo Tbilisi27139545:3048
2Dinamo Batumi27138646:3647
3Rustavi27137732:2346
4Iberia 199927144938:3046
5Dila Gori271241138:3040
6Torpedo Kutaisi2799943:3436
7Samgurali Tskaltubo27951338:5232
8Gagra276111025:3729
9Spaeri275101234:4325
10Meshakhte Tkibuli272111420:4417

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.