FC Gagra — FC Dinamo Batumi, Erovnuli Liga

Georgia, Erovnuli LigaOctober 17 at 03:00 PM

FC Gagra

1.4DLDLW

—

FC Dinamo Batumi

2.2WDWWW

Outcome probability

272846

FC Gagra27%Draw28%FC Dinamo Batumi46%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Gagra27%3.74—

XDraw28%3.63—

2FC Dinamo Batumi46%2.19—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.94

No49%

ours 2.06

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC GagraFC Dinamo BatumiCombined

Goals scored0.671.832.50

Conceded1.170.671.84

Corners12.010.611.3

Cards1.83.04.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC GagraFC Dinamo Batumi
8Table position1
42.80%Possession57.00%
6.1Days of rest6
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
FC Dinamo Batumi travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 46%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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