All matches

FC Samgurali Tskaltubo — FC Gagra, Erovnuli Liga

Georgia, Erovnuli Liga

FC Samgurali Tskaltubo
1.5LLLLD
—
FC Gagra
1.4DLDLW
Outcome probability
432730
FC Samgurali Tskaltubo43%Draw27%FC Gagra30%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Samgurali Tskaltubo43%2.33—
XDraw27%3.68—
2FC Gagra30%3.35—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes61%

ours 1.64

No39%

ours 2.57

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC Samgurali TskaltuboFC GagraCombined
Goals scored1.830.672.50
Conceded2.501.674.17
Corners10.011.010.5
Cards2.31.74.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FC Samgurali TskaltuboFC Gagra
    52.80%Possession43.20%
    7Table position8
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FC Samgurali Tskaltubo look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 43%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 7.5

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FC Samgurali Tskaltubo

  • homeFC Dinamo Tbilisi2:3
  • awayFC Torpedo Kutaisi2:3
  • homeFC Dila Gori1:3
  • awayFC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi1:2
  • homeFC Rustavi1:1

FC Gagra

  • homeFC Meshakhte Tkibuli1:1
  • awayFC Dinamo Tbilisi0:4
  • homeFC Torpedo Kutaisi1:1
  • awayFC Dila Gori0:1
  • homeFC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi2:0

Head to head

  • 06/24/26Erovnuli Liga0:0
  • 05/02/26Erovnuli Liga2:0
  • 03/02/26Erovnuli Liga1:0
  • 11/02/25Erovnuli Liga1:1
  • 08/24/25Erovnuli Liga0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5FC Dila Gori271241138:3040
6FC Torpedo Kutaisi2799943:3436
7FC Samgurali Tskaltubo27951338:5232
8FC Gagra276111025:3729
9Spaeri FC275101234:4325
10FC Meshakhte Tkibuli272111420:4417

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.