All matches

FC Torpedo Kutaisi — FC Rustavi, Erovnuli Liga

Georgia, Erovnuli Liga

FC Torpedo Kutaisi
2.4LWDDL
—
FC Rustavi
2.3LWDLD
Outcome probability
392932
FC Torpedo Kutaisi39%Draw29%FC Rustavi32%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Torpedo Kutaisi39%2.56—
XDraw29%3.41—
2FC Rustavi32%3.17—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes42%

ours 2.36

No58%

ours 1.73

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC Torpedo KutaisiFC RustaviCombined
Goals scored1.170.501.67
Conceded1.500.832.33
Corners10.08.69.3
Cards2.01.63.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FC Torpedo KutaisiFC Rustavi
    6Table position3
    52.60%Possession45.60%
    8Days of rest8
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour FC Torpedo Kutaisi: a home win is rated at 39%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

68%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FC Torpedo Kutaisi

  • awayFC Dinamo Batumi2:3
  • homeFC Samgurali Tskaltubo3:2
  • awayFC Gagra1:1
  • homeFC Dinamo Tbilisi1:1
  • homeFC Meshakhte Tkibuli0:2

FC Rustavi

  • homeFC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi0:2
  • awayFC Meshakhte Tkibuli1:0
  • awaySpaeri FC1:1
  • homeFC Dinamo Batumi0:1
  • awayFC Samgurali Tskaltubo1:1

Head to head

  • 08/07/26Erovnuli Liga0:1
  • 05/05/26Erovnuli Liga1:1
  • 03/07/26Erovnuli Liga0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1FC Dinamo Batumi27138646:3647
2FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi26144837:2846
3FC Rustavi27137732:2346
4FC Dinamo Tbilisi26129543:2945
5FC Dila Gori271241138:3040
6FC Torpedo Kutaisi2799943:3436
7FC Samgurali Tskaltubo27951338:5232
8FC Gagra276111025:3729

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.