All matches

Spaeri FC — FC Gagra, Erovnuli Liga

Georgia, Erovnuli Liga

Spaeri FC
1.5LLDDL
—
FC Gagra
1.4DLDLW
Outcome probability
412831
Spaeri FC41%Draw28%FC Gagra31%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Spaeri FC41%2.43—
XDraw28%3.55—
2FC Gagra31%3.26—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.91

No48%

ours 2.10

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSpaeri FCFC GagraCombined
Goals scored0.670.331.00
Conceded1.331.172.50
Corners11.811.311.5
Cards1.82.03.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Spaeri FCFC Gagra
    5Days of rest6
    53.50%Possession46.80%
    9Table position8
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Spaeri FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 41%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 8.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Spaeri FC

  • homeFC Dila Gori1:4
  • awayFC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi0:1
  • homeFC Rustavi1:1
  • awayFC Meshakhte Tkibuli2:2
  • awayFC Dinamo Batumi0:3

FC Gagra

  • homeFC Meshakhte Tkibuli1:1
  • awayFC Dinamo Tbilisi0:4
  • homeFC Torpedo Kutaisi1:1
  • awayFC Dila Gori0:1
  • homeFC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi2:0

Head to head

  • 08/17/26Erovnuli Liga1:1
  • 05/11/26Erovnuli Liga3:0
  • 03/11/26Erovnuli Liga3:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6FC Torpedo Kutaisi2799943:3436
7FC Samgurali Tskaltubo27951338:5232
8FC Gagra276111025:3729
9Spaeri FC275101234:4325
10FC Meshakhte Tkibuli272111420:4417

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.